Over the past few weeks, I’ve been talking to several vape factories in Shenzhen and Dongguan.
And honestly… the message is pretty consistent:
“Orders are down. Way down.”
But here’s the weird part 
China’s export data for early 2026 actually shows growth.
So what’s really going on?
1. The market isn’t shrinking — it’s being redistributed
On paper, exports are up.
In reality?
Most of that growth is going to big brands and fully compliant manufacturers.
Smaller factories are getting squeezed hard:
- Fewer inquiries
- Lower margins
- Higher compliance costs
This doesn’t feel like growth.
It feels like a silent shakeout.
2. If you’re not big, you’re in trouble
From what I’m hearing:
“Only big factories are getting stable orders now.”
And it makes sense:
- Fewer production licenses
- Top players control most capacity
- Compliance is getting expensive
If your margins were already thin…2026 might be brutal.
3. No more easy money (tax rebates are gone)
Starting April 2026, China removed export tax rebates for vape products.
For a lot of companies, that rebate was a huge chunk of profit.
Now?
- Costs stay high
- Prices can’t increase easily
- Margins get crushed
At the same time, overseas markets are tightening:
- Higher vape taxes (especially in the US)
- Disposable bans in parts of Europe
- More restrictions across the board
4. Manufacturing is quietly moving out of China
I’ve heard this more than once:
“If you’re not setting up in Indonesia, you’re already late.”
More companies are shifting to:
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Middle East (for re-export)
Not a full exit from China — but definitely a shift.
5. Meanwhile… alternatives are rising
While traditional vapes are slowing down:
- Heated tobacco (HNB) is gaining traction
- Nicotine pouches are growing fast
In some markets, these are starting to look like the next growth drivers.
So what’s really happening?
From where I stand, this doesn’t look like a normal “slow season.”
It looks more like:
A full industry reset
- Small players getting pushed out
- Big players taking more share
- Supply chains restructuring globally
Let’s talk — what are you seeing?
I’m curious what’s happening on your side:
- Are your orders down in 2026?
- Are you seeing clients disappear or delay orders?
- Or is business still strong for you?
And bigger question:
What do you think this is?
A. Just a temporary slowdown
B. A real industry shakeout has started
Or something else entirely?
Drop your thoughts